What’s my home worth? How I value an East Valley home

Start with closed sales, not asking prices

The number you are looking for is not on a home-value website and it is not on the sign down the street. It is in the closed sales. When a buyer’s appraiser values your home in a few weeks, they will use recent closings, adjusted for the differences. When a buyer with a saved search looks at your listing, they compare it to what just sold. So that is where I start.

Asking prices tell you what sellers hoped for. Right now the gap between hope and reality is small in some East Valley cities and wide in others. On a median price-per-square-foot basis, Gilbert sellers were asking about 2 percent more than buyers paid, while Scottsdale sellers were asking about 13 percent more (Cromford Report / ARMLS, data 9/15/26, analysis mine). Price to the asking prices and you inherit that gap. Price to the closings and you don’t.

The last three closings

I pull the three most recent closed sales that match your home most closely. Not the nearest three. The most similar three. Here is what I match on, in order:

1. Living square footage, within a range a buyer would consider the same size home.
2. Condition and updates, because a remodeled kitchen and an original one are not the same product.
3. Lot size, orientation, and what sits behind the back wall.
4. Age and construction, since a 1998 home and a 2019 home carry different roofs, plumbing and windows.
5. Pool or no pool, and whether it reads as a feature or a maintenance item.
6. How recently it closed, because a sale from last spring is a different market than one from last month.

When your street doesn’t have three good matches, I widen the circle by similarity, not by distance. A home two miles away that matches yours is a better comp than the one next door that doesn’t.

The days

Each of those three closings took a certain number of days from listing to contract. That number tells you the pace buyers in your segment are moving at, and it tells you what a fast sale should look like for your home specifically, not for the whole Valley. The typical single-family home in Chandler went under contract in a median 50 days, Mesa 47, and Gilbert 65, on the median basis, which sets aside the stale listings that drag averages up (Cromford Report / ARMLS, data 9/15/26, analysis mine). If your three comps sold in three weeks, a listing that sits for six is telling you something about the price.

Condition adjustments, honestly made

No two homes match exactly, so the three closings get adjusted. This is where a valuation gets honest or gets flattering. I adjust for the things a buyer actually pays for:

1. Roof age and condition. The Arizona seller disclosure asks for the approximate age and any past or present leaks, so a buyer sees this either way.
2. Air conditioning age. Same reason. The form asks for the type and approximate age of each unit.
3. Kitchen and bathrooms, updated or original, and how long ago.
4. Flooring, windows and paint, because they show up in the photos before anyone reads the remarks.
5. Pool, and the age of its equipment.
6. Anything unpermitted or unfinished, which becomes a negotiation later if it isn’t priced in now.

What I don’t adjust for: what you paid, what you spent on the remodel, what the neighbor is asking, or what you need to net to make the next move work. Those are real to you. They are invisible to a buyer.

Why the website estimate is different

An automated estimate is a formula. It reads the tax record for square footage, bedroom count and year built, mixes in recent sale prices nearby, and produces a number without ever seeing your kitchen. It doesn’t know the roof was replaced in 2022 or that the pool pump is original. It doesn’t know whether the home behind you is a greenbelt or a two-story wall. It treats every 2,100-square-foot home built in 2004 as the same house. Sometimes the formula lands close. Sometimes it is off by more than the cost of a new roof, in either direction, and you cannot tell which from the outside. It is a starting point for curiosity, not a number to list at.

What the written range includes

When you text me the address, you get a short written document, usually within a day, with:

1. The three closings, with addresses, what they closed for, and the specific adjustments I made to each.
2. The days each one took from listing to contract, on the median basis, so you can see the pace.
3. The current competition: what is active near you right now and what it is asking.
4. A range, and the list price inside that range I would recommend, with the reasoning.
5. What I would fix first and what I would leave alone, since condition is part of the number.
6. A note on timing, if I think the timing is wrong.

Two things about that number. First, the price is your decision. The Arizona market conditions advisory says the decision on price rests solely with the buyer and seller, and I take that literally: my job is to show you the evidence, not to talk you into a figure. Second, a price above the closings is a bet against the appraisal. If the buyer’s appraisal comes in low, the standard Arizona contract gives that buyer five days to cancel and take their earnest money back. A contract at the wrong number is not a sold home.

What I do for you

I am an Associate Broker with Keller Williams Integrity First Realty, based in Gilbert, with 500+ transactions closed, and a former brokerage owner and Designated Broker. The valuation you get is built the same way every time: closed sales, honest adjustments, the days, the competition, in writing, before anyone talks about a listing agreement. No appointment and no pressure.

Text me the address at (602) 610-3172 or email ryan@ryanharju.com and I’ll send you the written range.