Pricing: the two numbers that decide the first two weeks

Every seller starts with one number: what they’d like to get. The market answers with two, and neither of them is on a home-value website. First, what the last three homes like yours actually closed at, not what they were listed for. Second, how many days those homes took. If you price to the first number, the second one takes care of itself.

What the gap looks like right now

Sellers across the Valley are asking more per square foot than buyers are paying. Across Greater Phoenix, the gap between the average asking price per foot and the average closed price per foot was about 15 percent on 9/15/26. On a median basis, which sets aside the very expensive listings that aren’t selling, the gap in most of the East Valley is smaller: about 2 percent in Gilbert and about 13 percent in Scottsdale (Cromford Report / ARMLS, data 9/15/26, analysis mine).

Here’s the part that matters. The homes that sell are still closing near full asking. In 14 of the 18 largest Valley cities, sold homes closed at 97 percent or more of their list price (same source, same date). The homes that sit are the ones priced into the gap. The market isn’t punishing sellers. It’s punishing overpricing, one listing at a time.

Why the first two weeks

Because that’s when the buyers who have been waiting see you. Every buyer with a saved search for your area gets the alert the day you go live. They’ve been watching, they know what the last three sold for, and they compare you to those in about ten seconds. If you’re priced to the closings, they book a showing. If you’re priced to hope, they wait, because a listing that sits is a listing that will cut.

After that first wave, you’re selling to whoever starts looking next, one at a time. That’s a slower, thinner crowd, and every week on the market is a week the next buyer reads as a question mark.

Number one: the last three closings

Not the neighbor’s asking price. Not the listing that’s been sitting on your street for ninety days. Closed sales, the most recent three that match yours on size, condition, lot and age, adjusted honestly for the differences. When there aren’t three good ones on your street, we widen the circle by similarity, not by distance.

This is what the buyer’s appraiser will do in a few weeks anyway, and it’s better to know that number before you list than after you’re under contract. If a buyer’s appraisal comes in under the price, the standard Arizona contract gives that buyer five days to cancel and take their earnest money back. An overpriced contract is not a sold home.

Number two: the days

How long did those three take from list to contract? That tells you the pace buyers in your segment are moving at. It also tells you what a fast sale should look like for your house, so you’re judging your listing against the record and not against a rumor. Homes priced to the first number tend to fall inside that window. Homes priced above it write their own, longer number.

The price cut trap

A price cut isn’t fatal. Buyers read it correctly: a seller who started high finally met the market. But it costs you the first two weeks, which you don’t get back, and it invites offers below the new price because the buyer now knows you’re moving. Pricing right once beats pricing high and cutting. The math on that trade rarely favors the seller.

What I’ll pull for you

The three closings, the days, the current competition on your street, and what I’d list at and why. On paper, before we talk about a listing agreement. If the timing is wrong, I’ll tell you that too.

Two things the Arizona paperwork makes plain, and I’d rather you hear them from me. The price is your decision, not mine and not the buyer’s agent’s; the market conditions advisory says so in as many words. And the broker’s fee is negotiated between us, not set by any law or board; the listing contract says that in capitals and has you initial it. You’ll see my reasoning on both.

No listing appointment, no pressure. Text me the address and I’ll send you the two numbers for your street.